In the last six months, Coalition forces in Iraq have lost an average of 3.17 service members per day. While supporters of the war have argued during that time that the “surge” (what we used to call “escalation”) was working, neither the Coalition casualties, nor Iraqi casualties among civilians and security forces have reflected any such improvement.

In fact, the monthly death tolls have been trending upward since the surge began. Despite this, the Pentagon said this week that it plans to continue current troop levels in Iraq into 2008, and President George W. Bush has pledged to again veto an Iraq war spending bill, which would fund the war in stages.

Since the war began, the Pentagon has reported 3,654 Coalition deaths, with 3,381 of those being American service members.

Supposing that the rate of Coalition fatalities in Iraq does not change in the next year or two, the death toll of Coalition service members will break 5,000 in 425 days, on or about the July 4 weekend of next year. U.S. fatalities will break that number in 511 days, about one month before the first Tuesday following the first Monday of November 2008.

Yes, these are grizzly predictions, and we take no pleasure in the forecast. But going into the 2008 elections, everyone who follows or participates in politics has to ask themselve ‘what effect will this have?’ Will anyone who supports the war or anyone who voted for the Iraq war resolution be electable anymore?

— Kyle Whitmire